A.E.O.S.S.S. - 400IM

First we took a look at the 50FR, now to switch gears to one of the toughest events in the program, 400IM.  Americans stand as the defending World Champions in the 400IMs, but is there more then meets the eye?

BEISEL'S TIME?:  WOMEN'S 400IM


The logical favourite:  Elizabeth Beisel (USA)
At just 19 years old, Beisel is an established member of the US National Team and has been the most prolific female 400IMer on the planet over the last couple of years.  Beisel won gold at the 2010 Pan Pacs and again at the 2011 World Championships.  The only question that probably remains is whether she can step up and get under 4:30, with a personal (and 2011 World) best 4:31.78, given the probable field of swimmers in the 400IM this summer it will likely take under 4:30 to win.

The other contenders in the field include the three medal winners from the 2008 Olympic Games, Stephanie Rice (AUS), Kristy Coventry (ZIM), and Katie Hoff (USA) who claimed gold, silver, and bronze and all possess best times faster then Beisel's.  Britain's Hannah Miley has already stepped up this year and posted a 4:32.67 in the 400IM so she must also be counted as a contender in this field as well.

Canadian content:  Alexa Komarnycky has established herself over the last year or so as the best female Canadian 400IM swimmer out there.  It will take a brilliant effort for another Canadian swimmer to get under the FINA 'A' cut with Komarnycky to send two Canadians to London to race the 400IM.

For those who love the long shots:  Hoff... Such a talent but I would not be surprised if either she won the Olympic gold medal or missed the US Olympic team in this event altogether.  For me, Hoff is must-watch racing and could be a star in 2012.

Parting shot...  It seems as if while Beisel has been dominating the 400IM over the last 24 months that Rice and Coventry having been (relatively) laying low... is this because they are laser focused on the London games or is this a true changing of the guard?

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LOCHTE'S LOCK:  MEN'S 400IM


The logical favourite:  Ryan Lochte (USA)

Ryan Lochte has been the best swimmer on the planet following the 2008 Olympics, the most beloved swimmer in North America, and in the 400IM barring injury or a horrible stroke of bad luck Lochte will win the 400IM soundly in London... unless?

The players fighting for the remaining medals include Tyler Clary (USA), Laszlo Cseh (HUN), and Thiago Pereira (BRA).  None of them are going to chase down Lochte.

Canadian content:  FINA 'A' cut is 4:16.46... Two Canadian IMers are chasing down that standard, Alec Page and Andrew Ford.  The separation between these two is razer thin, and knowing how competitive Ford is and how talented Page is, don't be surprised if both swim under the A cut and race in London but neither are true medal threats in 2012, however watch out for Page moving towards Rio.

For those who love the long shots:  Chad Le Clos (RSA)...  The soon-to-be 20 year old rising star is probably more of a threat in the butterfly events but he has gone 4:14.93 already this year, good for the 4th best result of the year so far, and this young man is on the rise.

Parting shot...  He insists that he doesn't swim 400IM any more but the 9th best 400IM time this year was posted by Michael Phelps at the Austin Grand Prix.  If something changes and all of a sudden Phelps decides to swim the 400IM, then he becomes an instant threat to Lochte and the 400IM will be one of the most interesting races of the 2012 games... but if Phelps doesn't race the 400IM at the US Trials then Lochte is a slam dunk gold medalist in this event in London.