The Tough Road

I received a little information along my Twitter feed today about an article about now former University of Michigan and US National Team swimmer Tyler Clary. The gist of the article was that Clary is forgoing his senior year of varsity swimming at UM to turn pro and chase his Olympic dream for 2012.

The article is located at the link here.

I have never met Tyler but I must say that I have tremendous respect for him as an athlete. Clary might be the third best swimmer on the planet behind Michael Phelps and Ryan Lochte, and unfortunately for Clary his road to London in 2012 has to blast through the brick wall that Phelps and Lochte metaphorically represent.

If one were to list Clary's best events...

200 BACK, 200 FLY, 200 IM, 400 IM

Talk about a hornets nest of events to try and make the US Olympic team in for 2012. Here's a look at the waters Clary must navigate to make the 2012 team...

200 BK...

Clary posted the 2nd best time of the year in the 200BK at Pan Pacs 1:54.90 but the road to London is packed with talented 200 backstrokers...

Ryan Lochte - #1 in the world this year, 1:54.12
Aaron Piersol - #4 in the world this year, 1:56.22, current 200BK world record holder
Michael Phelps - #5 in the world this year, 1:56.98, might look to add this event in 2012
Nicholas Thoman - #12 in the world this year, 1:57.71, serious up-and-comer in the backstrokes, world record holder in the SCM 100BK
Matt Grevers - #13 inthe world this year, 1:57.73, 2008 Olympian, seriously talented

Clearly the US has a serious collection of talent in the 200BK and this event is going to be horribly difficult to qualify in for the 2012 games, should be exciting to watch unfold.

200 FLY...

This event might be the "easiest" road to London for Clary because he's currently the #2 American in this event with only one currently serious challenger. Everyone knows that Phelps is the top dog in the 200FL and has been since 2001. The funny/sad thing for Clary is that even though the 200FL might be the clearest road to London for Clary it is probably the event (of his four best events) that he has the least chance at winning an Olympic medal. Clary is ranked #8 in the world in the 200FL, 1:55.72. The closest American threatening to get into the top 2 mix for that Olympic berth is currently Mark Dylla (#22 in the world, 1:57.08), who did beat Clary in this event at the US Nationals and if that happens at the 2012 Trials then Clary is going to be a spectator in this event come London.

200 IM...

2010 World Rankings...

1. Ryan Lochte 1:54.43, current WR holder (1:54.10)
2. Michael Phelps 1:55.94, former WR holder and two-time defending Olympic Champion
3. Tyler Clary 1:57.61, the man trying to crack the Lochte-Phelps dominance in the 200IM

Clary is going to need Phelps to fail like he did this summer at Pan Pacs... long odds that a star like Phelps continues to slide. Lochte, Phelps, and Clary are the top 3 guys in the world in the 200IM and will likely continue to be so come 2012, and it's a shame one of them will not swim the 200IM in London.

400 IM...

The big question in the 400IM come 2012 is who will win the Phelps camp power struggle in this event?

Phelps has made it well known (you can even find a blurb of how he'd like to drop the 400IM on his Wikipedia page) that he would not be heart-broken if he were to drop the 400IM from his event schedule.

Bob Bowman (and Phelps' mother) love this event and will not drop it without a fight...

Tyler Clary is the man in the balance. #2 in the world in the 400IM this year, 4:09.20, behind Ryan Lochte (who else). Phelps is the World Record holder but he clearly punted the 400IM this summer, and by punted I mean *only* posting a time worthy of #12 in world this year, 4:15.38, which is a failure for Phelps only because Phelps has been the man in this event, winning every major Games 400 IM pretty much every year since 2002.

So if Phelps has to swim this in 2012, then Clary is in tough, if Phelps does not swim the 400IM then Clary should be considered a serious medal contender in London.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Tyler Clary might be the best swimmer that flies just under the mainstream radar. In the world of men's swimming, Clary's 400IM at Pan Pacs 4:09.20 scored 992 world performance points, which is a score only bested by ...

Lochte (200IM, 400IM, 200BK)
Phelps (400IM)
Kosuke Kitajima (100BR, 200BR)
Camille Lacourt (50BK, 100BK)

Clary outscored some huge names in swimming this year -- Fred Bousquet, Nathan Adrian, Brent Hayden, Tae Hwan Park, Ryan Cochrane, Piersol, Liam Tancock, and Cesar Cielo...

Clearly Clary is pretty damn good... but will he be good enough in 2012? It's certainly a tough road ahead. Good luck!