The Leaving London Series: The Future

Over the last two weeks we have looked at what has come from the London Olympic Games.  The one time every four years where swimming enters the general public discussion and for 8 days swimming is just as popular as NFL Football, Champions League Soccer, NBA Basketball, and maybe Justin Beiber.

The world watched Ryan Lochte win the 400IM, Dana Vollmer zoom to a WR in the 100FL, Ruta Meilutyte thrill the British crowd in the 100BR, Ye Shiwen was NOW, Chad le Clos down Michael Phelps at the final touch, Rebecca Soni crack 2:20, Missy Franklin realize her potential, Ranomi Kromowidjojo sprint to glory, the French men's relay earn redemption and avenge 2008, Michael Phelps re-find his swagger, Flourent Manaudou unseat the master Cielo, and Sun Yang almost kill his chance at glory in the 1500FR only to then go on to thrill the world in the 1500.

... that's all well and good... what's next?

We start the the Cruise to Carnival.

Who/what are the future?

On the women's side...

Kromowidjojo is young enough to have another go in 4 years but Franklin looks primed to challenge her in the 100FR while the US will try to see emerging sprinting start Lia Neal come to the fore in 2016.

Into the upper distance freestyle, whether it's 800 or 1500 it won't really matter because Katie Ledecky is going to be a force in the either and probably the 400 too.

Franklin is poised to continue to own the backstrokes while the breaststrokes will be wide open, despite the youth of Meilutyte it's just too difficult to forecast the future success of teenage breaststroke swimmers.  Butterfly will also be wide open come 2016 but the same can not be said for the IMs where Ye Shiwen is poised to be elite for a long time to come.

On the men's side...

Too tough to forecast that Flourent Manaudou is more then just a flash in the pan in the 50 while the hopes of Brazil will likely ride on the fast twitch muscles of Bruno Fratus.

Nathan Adrian is young enough to remain a force in the 100FR and James Magnussen should continue to go along right with him

When it comes to the freestyles 200 and up...  it's going to take a Herculean development to keep up with Chinese star Sun Yang.

Men's backstroke could be well up for grabs, Ryan Lochte will likely focus on backstroke over the next 4 years, especially the 100.  Tyler Clary at 23 and Ryosuke Irie at 22 should still be on the scene come Rio.

Men's breaststroke is WIDE OPEN.  Kitajima is done, as too is Hansen, while Gyurta and van der Burgh will be fours years older and far from locks come Rio.

Men's butterfly looks to be in good hands with the emergence of Chad le Clos as the Phelps slayer.  Le Clos is primed to be a big-time player in Rio, maybe the biggest of all players come Rio.

In the men's IMs, there is set to be new blood because Phelps will likely not be in the building, and Lochte can not be expected to at age 31 or 32 to be at the top of his game either.  That leaves le Clos, Clary, Kosuke Hagino, Thomas Fraser-Holmes as the top returning big hitters come Rio.

This is all well and good... but who are the stars??

Missy Franklin (USA)... can't miss unless her transition to a new coach at a University program does not go well.  Look for her to pursue 6, 7, or 8 Gold Medals in Rio and really dominate the discourse.

Ye Shiwen (CHN)...  I just don't see her stopping her dominance, at her age and how far ahead of the world she is right now, I see Ye as a force come Rio and hopefully in another event beyond the IMs.

Katie Ledecky (USA)... at just 15 years old and going 8:14.63 is beyond ridiculous.  Like Franklin, if Ledecky chooses to go the NCAA route she is going to have to adapt to a new coach and that is always a tricky proposition but from all accounts on Twitter this girl trains like a Superhero and should be good for some time to come.

Becca Mann (USA)...  Mann was not on the 2012 Olympic team but she was all over the place at US Trials at just age 14.  She's capable of swimming up and challenging the elite of elite in the 400FR, 800FR, 400IM, and probably more come 2016.  She's going to be really emerging over the next 4 years and it's going to be fun to watch.

James Magnussen (AUS)... He missed Gold by .01 in the 100FR in London, he's going to be 25 come the Olympics in Rio and he's going to be good in the 50 & 100.

Sun Yang (CHN)... I like him to sweep gold in the 200, 400, and 1500 in Rio.

Tyler Clary (USA)... covered yesterday

Chad le Clos (RSA)... covered yesterday

And if the meet in Rio is bolstered by a couple of returning big names that might be beyond their prime, there should be no shortage of star power in Rio.

UP LAST... The closing post in the Leaving London Series, gives the final words to the biggest star in swimming history, Michael Phelps.

The Leaving London Series: Canada

The consistently stated goal of Swimming Canada's CEO Pierre Lafontaine was 3 medals at the Olympic Games in 2012.

BRENT HAYDEN - BRONZE (100FR - 47.80)
RYAN COCHRANE - SILVER (1500FR - 14:39.63)
RICHARD WEINBERGER - BRONZE (10KM - 1:50.00.3)

By my count that is 3 medals.  Primary goal SUCCESSFUL.  Canada was on the podium just as many times as host Great Britain, which would have be considered a pretty good feat.

How about beyond the medals metric?

I'm not privy to what the team's goals were beyond the appearances on the medal podium.  Some of the stronger Canadian performances...

- Women's 4x200FR Relay -- 4th
- Sinead Russell 200BK -- 8th
- Martha McCabe 200BR -- 5th
- Tera van Beilen 100BR -- 9th missed out on the Final by losing swim off
- Brittany MacLean 400FR -- 7th

However, beyond these swims we have a long way to go.  With a good deal of the Olympic Team primed to retire after this Olympiad it's incumbent that those on the Canadian Jr. Teams really start to press up to the big team and perform.  We need more Tera van Beilen, Sinead Russell, Brittany MacLean-type progressions from recent Junior success to International relevance and we need them soon.  The athletes are there, I see them on deck at meets all across the country.  The development meets are in place, the sheer number of national development teams and racing opportunities are more impressive then I can ever recall in my 25 years being involved in Canadian swimming.

The onus is now on the coaches, swimmers, and all relevant support staff to aggressively push forward and perform on the International stage and for those who have not yet been able to perform beyond National team vets like Hayden, Lacroix, Wilkinson, Oriwol, Dickens, and Bartoch the kids need to exceed the level of those mainstays.

It's going to be an exciting quadrennial, new blood needs to emerge, the degree to which we are successful at developing new elite talent will determine how we will progress come Rio 2016.

TOMORROW... Improbable Forecasting For The Next Four Years

The Leaving London Series: Who Will Be The 2016 Alpha Dog

Michael Phelps has dominated the Olympic landscape since 2004 and in 2000 through 2004 it was the era of Ian Thorpe.  However, for the first time in quite some time the swimming world is left without an Alpha Dog on top.

On the women's side the emerging alpha dog is clearly Missy Franklin.  Hopefully Franklin and Ye Shiwen can find an event to crossover and race each other in 2016, otherwise it's all academic as to how 2016 will play out.

On the men's side of the sport there's a two man rivalry primed to emerge...

In the BLUE CORNER...

- 20 years of age, will be just 24 come Rio
- 2012 Olympic Gold Medalist in the 200FL
- 2012 Olympic Silver Medalist in the 100FL
- 2012 4th place finisher in the 400IM
- the man who felled Michael Phelps in the one event that Phelps "couldn't lose"
- the son of Bert Le Clos who the BBC made famous like Debbie Phelps and NBC

South African sensation Chad le Clos.

In the RED CORNER...

- 23 years of age, will be 27 and prime for Rio
- 2012 Olympic Gold Medalist in the 200BK
- 2012 5th place finisher in the 200FL
- 2 x World Championship Silver Medalist in the 400IM
- the man who embarrassed Ryan Lochte, blowing passed Lochte in the last 50 of the 200BK
- the kid with the swagger to call out Phelps for being a slacker

American dark horse Tyler Clary.

Come 2016 in Rio, these two men could be primed to go head-to-head in the 200FL, 200IM, 400IM and either man is talented enough that maybe they could find another event like Clary putting together a 100FL.

This is a great match up on paper with recent results...

200FL... Le Clos 1:52.96 -- Clary 1:53.64
200IM...  Le Clos 1:58.49 -- Clary 1:57.25
400IM...  Le Clos 4:12.24 -- Clary 4:09.92

It's not yet time to start taking sides, nor is either man a lock to be the Alpha Dog come 2016, but both men are immensely talented athletes primed to carry the hopes of their nations and our sport into the post-Phelps, post-Lochte era.
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TOMORROW...  Canada.. London & Beyond

The Leaving London Series: The Biggest Upset Gold In London

Everyone loves an underdog.  In London there were a lot of great races but many of the races were won by well established stars of the sport.

No one was surprised to see Phelps, Lochte, Sun, Kromowidjojo, Muffat, Soni, Franklin, Vollmer, Grevers, Agnel, Ye, and van der Burgh on top of a medal podium.Although some were in tougher competition then other, winning was not a shock.

Evan Chad le Clos' shocking victory in the 200FL over Phelps was surprising but if asked who was the one swimmer who had a chance to unseat Phelps it would have been Phelps.  Similarly Nathan Adrian upsetting James Magnussen was interesting but not overwhelming.

Katie Ledecky (800FR) and Ruta Meilutyte (100BR) were rocketing to Gold situations but at least both came into the Games with great momentum throughout the 2011-2012 season.

However, amongst all these wins the most shocking of all was Flourent Manaudou's golden performance in the 50FR.  Ranked 10th coming into London, Manaudou was a 50-1 shot in many of the London sports books (a popular place this Olympic Games).  After heats Manaudou was in a 3-way tie for 7th at 22.09 after prelims, 6th after semi-Finals in 21.80, but then his 21.34 out of Lane 7 in Finals was a thing of brilliance.

Of all the names in the 50FR - Cielo, Jones, Fratus, Ervin, Schoeman, Bovell, Sullivan, and Manaudou there were a 5 names who had previously won Olympic Gold, including Manaudou except that the Manaudou with an Olympic Gold medal was Flourent's sister Laure who won Gold in the 400FR in Athens in 2004.  Flourent was up to that breakthrough swim in London, just the Brother of an Olympic Champion, but now he's the Man.

Let's dig into the amazing numbers behind Manaudou's performance...

- 21 years old... the youngest man in the Olympic Final
- 21.34 is the fastest time in a textile suit, besting the previous textile best of Fred Bousquet 21.36
- 21.77 Manaudou's best time in the 50FR... short course meters...
- 21.86 Maudauou's previous best time in the 50FR LCM
- 2... the number of times Manaudou had swam under 22 in the 50FR prior to the London Olympics
- 22.09 was the 3rd fastest Manaudou had ever swam, he needed that strong prelim swim
- 21.80 was a best time by .06 posted in the Semi-Final
- 21.34... Gold... talk about a great time to go a best time by .46 in the 50FR

Brilliance.  Pure brilliance.  A perfect Olympic moment and what this sport is all about.  Congratulations Flourent!

TOMORROW...  Who Will Be The 2016 Alpha Dog In The Pool With Phelps Gone?

The Leaving London Series: Ye Shiwen

The most controversial swimmer coming out of the London Olympics was 16-year old Chinese swimming phenomenon Ye Shiwen.  Ye left London with a pair of Gold medals in the 200 and 400IM powered by phenomenal finishing speed on the freestyle legs of each swim.

In the 400IM, American Elizabeth Beisel looked in control of the 400IM after taking control in the backstroke leg but out of nowhere Ye blew by Beisel right away in the freestyle en route to a Gold medal and World Record.

Freestyle splits...

Beisel - 31.52 & 30.81 --> 1:02.33
Ye - 29.75 & 28.93 --> 58.68

.. and Beisel is no slouch when it comes to finishing races.  Beisel out-split everyone else in the 400IM on the freestyle leg with the exception of Ye's team mate and Bronze medalist Li Xuanxu who narrowly out split Beisel but still that leaves Ye more then 3 seconds faster then the rest of the world.

Then in the 200IM, the event in which Ye is the reigning World Champion, where as a 15 year old Ye Shiwen captured gold in Shanghai.  In 2011 Ye out touched Alicia Coutts from Australia to claim Gold.  In London, Ye trailed both Coutts and leader Caitlin Leverenz at 150, but again Ye unleashed a 29.32 to beat out Coutts and Leverenz and a second Gold medal.

Capturing two Gold medals in the fashion that Ye did was not the most reported storyline in London when it came to Ye.  Rather it was Ye's perceived dominance over Ryan Lochte that was most covered.  Ye's 58.68 split in the freestyle of the 400IM kept up with Lochte's 58.65 and Ye out-split Lochte on the final 50 28.93 to 29.10.

Impressive... but then speculation that Ye might be cheating surfaced without substantiation or evidence.  C'mon.  Yes, what Ye did in the final 100 of her 400IM was impressive but it was brilliant swim in a high exposure swim and nothing more.

Is it uncommon for a teenager to jump out ahead of the world?

Where were the cries of unfair play while American Missy Franklin won 5 medals, 4 of them Gold in London?

Where were the cries of unfair play when 15-year old Lithuanian breaststroker Ruta Meilutyte, with no track record of big-time International success, dominated the 100BR and claimed Gold in London?

If one argues the track record argument with Franklin, then arguer fails to recognize Ye's Gold medal in Shanghai.  If one argues that Franklin is a year older and more mature then Ye, then he/she fails to recognize the dominance of Meilutyte at a year younger then Ye.

Ye has been a swimming phenomenon for a while.  On the Chinese National team since 2008, Ye's been under the microscope for too long to point to her as a cheat.  It's sour grapes and lazy reporting by those who do not take the time to research the sport and drop in every 4 years for lazy reporting.  It is blatant hypocrisy to condemn Ye without condemning similarly great talents from the US and Europe.

TOMORROW... The Biggest Upset In London

The Leaving London Series: Officiating

The only reason the notion of officiating is an issue coming out of London were the comments from South African 100BR Gold medalist Cameron van der Burgh that he used extra illegal dolphin kicks off his wall like 99% of other breaststrokers do in order to keep up, win, and break the world record.

"If you're not doing it, you're all behind." - Cameron van der Burgh

Wow.

This is a slap in the face of the on deck officials that failed to notice the infraction of van der Burgh, or his competitors in the 100BR Final.  The claims are out there that everyone is doing it, Rickard, Kitajima, Hansen, etc... Either it's time for officials to step up and be hyper-vigilant watching breaststroke pull outs or FINA needs to evolve and use better technology to officiate their races.   The call is out there for video technology to be allowed to be used for officiating.  If the technology is out there it's clear after a slap in the face like van der Burgh issued that it's time for FINA to change with the times to prevent issues like this stripping away the credibility of the officials who give their valuable time to support our sport.

Not the greatest subplot coming out of London, but something clearly needs to be done.

TOMORROW... Ye Shiwen

The Leaving London Series: Stroke 50s

Last week speculation surfaced via one of the premier swimming swimming websites on the Internet SwimSwam that the International Olympic Committee is considering adding the stroke 50s to the Olympic program (along with ditching the women's 800FR in favour of a women's 1500).

As SwimSwam pointed out, the IOC has refused adding stroke 50s to the Games program because of the number of swimming medals already being handed out at the Games.  With Michael Phelps claiming 22 medals over 3 Olympiads is a feat that can not be duplicated by a sailer, a soccer player, a tennis player, basketball, or handball.  Really, the only sports that could yield so many medals to an individual are track, gymnastics, and swimming.  As a result it's hard to see the IOC actually pulling the trigger on stroke 50s.

However, as SwimSwam points out, money talks and when it comes to the first week of the Olympics, the world is focused almost squarely on the excitement in the pool and it's hard to argue against the "excitement" factor of stroke 50s.

Men's 10km podium, LtoR - Lurz, Mellouli, Weinberger

As someone within the swimming community, I'm all in favour of more Olympic team spots via more events.  The men's 10km open water race yielded a bronze medal for Canadian Richard Weinberger, who is a force in open water swimming but a non-factor in the 1500 pool race.  For guys like Richard, the open water Olympic race gave him Olympic glory and anyone in the swimming community should support even more opportunities.

Yes, more 50s mean more piling on for the sprinters and might serve to stunt the development of some younger swimmers who see their future in just the 50s at too young an age but with good coaching and time it will be observed that young kids are just not going to be able to compete with older, stronger, and more mature swimmers that gravitate to the 50s as they get older.

Opening the door for stroke 50s will hopefully at a later date open the door for the men's 800 and women's 1500, who would not want to see Katie Ledecky and Sun Yang compete for more Gold with the addition of these great races??

I am also for expansion of the Open Water program to include the 5km and 25km races.  Take it from me, you want a real marathon of swimming, it's not the puny 1500, it's not the comfortable 10km race, it's a grueling 25km race.  Love that race, a true test of distance capabilities.

The more Olympic swimming the merrier, sign me up as interested.

TOMORROW...  Officiating