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Saturday, June 30, 2012

US Trials Day 7 Primer

Short prelims session for Day 7.

Women's 50FR:  The Last Stand Of Dara Torres?
If watching Anthony Ervin tear it up today in the men's 50FR wasn't exciting enough, the ageless Dara Torres gets her opportunity to start her journey towards London in her only event of Trials.  Torres will be the front and center story but she's going to have to swim through a gauntlet of fast ladies to get on the team.  Jessica Hardy was fantastic winning the 100FR, Amanda Weir was good in the 100FR, and there will be a number of 50 specialists that come forth to challenge for the two Olympic spots.

Prediction...  Hardy is on a roll, have to expect her to win the event.  As for Torres, I don't like her chances, I don't expect her to make the team.

Men's 1500FR:  I Heart The Mile
I love the 1500.  Barring a serious breakthrough swim at these Trials, the Americans do not seem to have a serious medal threat in the 1500 during this Olympic cycle.  I like Andrew Gemmell to rise up and win the 1500FR... why?  It looks like he's swimming well and I would not be surprised that some new, young blood finds a way onto the US team laden with veterans.

US Trials Day 6 Primer

This one is going to have to go quickie style, sorry but it's off to prelims here in Nepean...

Men's 50FR:  Jonesin'
After Cullen Jones stepped up big in the 100FR last night it's pretty much impossible not to pick him in his better event today.  Adrian (winner of the 100FR) will be the favourite and then after that it's a cavalcade of US sprinters capable of winner because this is a 50 after all... Schneider, Ervin, Feigen, Brunelli, Schneider, Lezak, Weber-Gale, Grevers, they are all in there and capable but for now I'm with Jones.

Women's 800FR:  Sutton
There were a lot of fast girls in the 400FR but Allison Schmitt doesn't do today's 800 so I'll go with Chloe Sutton who is already on the team in the 400 but the 800 is more her wheelhouse so she looks like the strong favourite in this race.  Ledecky and Ziegler also feature prominently in this race, Ledecky has been particularly strong this week so she's in a good position to grab that second spot to London.

Men's 100FL:  One Name.
Michael Phelps... maybe you've heard of  him.

Women's 200BK:  Franklin vs. Beisel
Good showdown between these two ladies.  Franklin was so dominant in the 100BK and in such very impressive fashion and Beisel has been in the mix all week, including a dominant performance in the 400IM.  200BK was Beisel's breakout event so one has to believe she's going to super prepared for this, I'll take the veteran over the youngster... pick = Beisel.

Only one more day of prelims action tomorrow with the women's 50FR and the men's 1500!!

Thursday, June 28, 2012

US Trials Day 5 Primer

Sorry about the lack of recaps from Finals... day 1 here in Nepean took forever and the sauna-esque conditions are not facilitating the energy to spend a great deal of time blogging afterwards.  I completely missed Finals tonight, the results looked fantastic and set up for some big time showdowns in the Day 6 events.

Women's 100FR:  The Unstoppable Force
Can anyone pick against Allison Schmitt??  Why would you want to?  1:54.40 200FR tonight, are you kidding me (kidding wasn't my first choice of words).  Schmitt has been the story of the women's side of Trials, and even Missy Franklin is taking a back seat to Schmitt's brilliance.  Ranking 1-4... Schmitt, Franklin, Vollmer, Romano

Men's 200BK:  Lochte
Good field... a bunch of non-sense analysis, blah blah blah... I'm taking Lochte to win.

Women's 200BR:  Soni's Revenge
Breeja Larson posted one of the biggest surprises of Trials thus far but in the 200BR I'm taking Soni to win Trials and move forward to win the Olympic gold.

Men's 200IM:  Lochte vs. Phelps: The Final Round
Flip a coin...  I did.  Phelps 1, Lochte 2.

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

US Trials Day 4 Primer

I'm live in Nepean, so I'll put together this look at prelims tomorrow at US Trials...

Men's 100FR: Bring On The Sprinters + Lochte & Phelps (Of Course)
The tagline above says it all.  The American sprinters finally get released from their cage here on day 4 of the US Trials.  This means Nathan Adrian, Jimmy Feigen, Garrett Weber-Gale, Bobby Savulich, Cullen Jones, Nick Brunelli, and the enigmatic and legendary Jason Lezak get to show what they are bringing to the dance.  Of course Lochte & Phelps want to swim on this relay in London so they are entered prominently into the 100FR.  Ricky Berens and Matt Grevers are already on the Olympic team, swimming well, and they are going to be in the mix.  And the ultimate wild card and the man everyone should want to see... Anthony Ervin.

Sign me up... no shortage of intriguing story lines.  Old, young, current, retro, legendary, potential, there's something for everyone in this race.

Who do I see in the mix?  Top 4... Adrian, Phelps, Berens, Feigen.  The other 2 spots... Lochte, Grevers.  I just don't see Lezak or Ervin holding up over all 3 swims.

Women's 200FL: Teresa Crippen Or You Suck
I think I would start to cry if Teresa Crippen can climb onto the Olympic team and allow for the NBC crew to honour Fran Crippen in this Olympic team selection process and television coverage.  Good luck Teresa!!

Men's 200BR:  Hansen Or Shanteau... Who You Got?
I've got Shanteau.

Day 2 FINALS

Day 2 featured Trials rolling at a full event load after a full set of semi-Finals in Day 1.  Great racing, some drama, a full service Trials experience...

Women's 100FL: Vollmer!
No surprise, Dana Vollmer ran away with the 100FL with a third straight time under 57, which is an impressive set of performances.  The more exciting story from the women's 100FL was the race for the second spot.  Christine Magnuson, Nathalie Coughlin, Kathleen Hersey, and Elaine Breeden were the big names but it was a fantastic performance from upstart Claire Donahue out of lane 1 earning the second spot on the American team with a solid 57.57... no one else was under 58.

Men's 100BR:  Comeback Complete
In an interesting development, the fastest 100 breaststroker in the building in Omaha was not Brendan Hansen who won in 59.68 but rather Japanese breaststroke Jedi Kosuke Kitajima who was chilling out with horrible seats -- could someone at USA swimming not hooked Kitajima up with a deck pass??  Eric Shanteau claimed second in 1:00.15 and will head to his second Olympics.  It was too bad that young breaststroke upstart Kevin Cordes from the University of Arizona could not hold on over the final 25m... Cordes faded and finished 3rd and will have to wait another day to try and make his first Olympic team.

Women's 400FR:  Schmitty!
Hell yes, Allison Schmitt just shut everyone down in  the 400FR with a thoroughly dominant performance leading start to finish and posted a powerful 4:02.84.  Chloe Sutton went a strong 4:04.18 to claim the second Olympic team spot.  Aside from the utter dominance of Schmitt the equally compelling story coming out of the 400FR was the flopping of Katie Hoff who managed just a 4:13.08 and a 20th place finish.  Hoff's coach Paul Yetter ran damage control for Hoff excusing her performance on the basis that she's shown flu-like symptoms.  Rough luck for Hoff who is now a long shot to make the US Olympic team.

... in semis action...

Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps put on a show in their 200FR semi to no surprise but the 9th place finish of Peter Vanderkaay locked out the freestyler from the A-Final by just .03, which is a shame because at his best Vanderkaay is the third best American in the 200FR but those are the breaks of Trials where all mistakes are magnified by a factor of 1000.

Rebecca Soni and Jessica Hardy were 1-2 in the 100BR with Breeja Larson sitting in a competitive 3rd spot and ready to steal an Olympic birth should either Soni or Hardy slip up tonight.  Amanda Beard finished 10th and will be a spectator for tonight's A-Final.

The men's 100BK lost Lochte from it's field when he scratched following his prelim swim.  Matt Grevers is on fire right now posting a 52.90 in prelims and a 53.10 in semis to earn Lane 4 tonight.  David Plummer and Nick Thoman are 2nd and 3rd and tonight in the 100BK Final its 3 deserving swimmers but only 2 are going to get spots... rough.  Randall Bal, a long-time American national team backstroker finished 9th and is out of the A-Final.

Lastly, in the women's 100BK, so far it has been Missy Franklin and Rachel Bootsma leading the way, which is fascinating because Natalie Coughlin has not looked like she's going to climb passed the two rising teens.  Should Coughlin not be able to dig out a sub-59 performance tonight (she's only been 1:00.71 and 1:00.63 so far in heats and semis) then she's going to be on the outside looking in and running out of swims and opportunities to get herself onto the Olympic team, which is an incredible thought to fathom.


US Trials Day 3 Primer

Live from a bus on the way to Ottawa and posting from my cell phone, we'll see how this works out...

DAY 3 EVENTS
W 200FR
M 200FL
W 200I'M

Women's 200FR: Franklin vs Schmitt
Schmitt looked awesome winning the 400 last night and even though Missy Franklin is really good I like Schmitt to get to the wall first.  Franklin 2nd, Trosky and Vollmer to grab the relay spots.  2 others will earn alternate relay spots... Yawn.

Men's 200FL: Phelps, Duh
Phelps owns the 200FL and the race for 2nd should be between Tyler Clary and Bobby Bollier.  Bollier has been very sharp during Trials but so has Clary and I like Clary to earn the second spot.

Women's 200IM: Beisel/Leverenz II
Beisel... All day long after her dominance in the 400IM, Leverenz is really good too but this week looks like it belongs to Beisel.

Happy viewing tonight.

Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Day 1 FINALS

Surprise, surprise... After day 1 at the US Olympic Trials both Ryan Lochte and Michael Phelps are on the American Olympic team.  I know, I'm stunned as well.


Men's 400IM:  It Sucks To Be Tyler Clary
For four years it was thought that Phelps had retired from the 400IM and I imagine that the most disappointed person in the world to see that Phelps was indeed going to swim the 400IM would have been Clary.  Clary is awesome, if I ever meet him I'll buy him a beer, 4:09.92 is a fantastic 400IM but alas it's not good enough to get ahead of Lochte (4:07.06) and Phelps (4:07.89).

Speaking of the aforementioned Lochte and Phelps...  Lochte's breaststroke was the difference making stroke in the race.  Lochte's 1:10.33 to Phelps 1:11.32 was the all the breathing room Lochte needed to secure the win and a confidence building topping of Phelps.

Safe money is that both men will be faster in a month.

Men's 400FR:  Not So Great
Congratulations to Peter Vanderkaay with a workman-like victory of the 400FR and the breakthrough performance of Conor Dwyer to finish second and get onto his first Olympic team.  Dwyer raced a beautiful 400, 56.81 on the final 100 was fast enough to surge past Charlie Houchin and Dwyer's speed came on early enough to hold off a tremendous final 50m surge from Michael Klueh, who's 27.86 was the only sub 28 split from anyone in the field (with the exception of the opening 50s).

The downside of the race is that 3:47 in the grand scheme of International swimming is not all that fast and likely won't make the Olympic Final so these boys have a long way to go.

Women's 400IM:  Confirmation That Gregg Troy Is Really, Really Good
Six Olympians were selected on Monday night.  Four of them swim for University of Florida iconic coach Gregg Troy.  Lochte, Vanderkaay, Dwyer, and lastly Elizabeth Beisel.

Beisel won the women's 400IM before the race even started.  She looks like she is in incredible shape.  Incredible.  She's jacked and lean and just looks like she's dripping in speed.  Sign me up, I'm all in on Beisel in whatever she swims at these Trials and then again in London.  I thought Caitlin Leverenz was ready to ride out a brilliant NCAA season and she will go to London but she was no match for Beisel tonight.

Here's to hoping that Dana Vollmer and Brendan Hansen can hold over their great swimming to Finals tonight in the 100FL and 100BR respectively.