The sprinting ladies finally take to the pool, after 4 days of watching the women's 100FR is today and the 50 tomorrow (odd scheduling to say the least). Plus a lot of very interesting storylines to watch as events and spots on the Olympic team are running short...
EVENT 36: MEN'S 100FL
Joe Bartoch remains the gold standard in this event in Canada, he's ready to be done but not until someone steps up to beat him. No one is in his class right now in this field to chase him down.
Prediction: Joe Bartoch wins and it won't be close.
EVENT 37: WOMEN'S 100FR
Finally the lady sprinters get their shot and we'll see Victoria Poon (PPO) and rising youngster Chantal VanLandeghem (MANTA) race for their spots on the team. Throw in a fast Julia Wilkinson (IS) and a confident Amanda Reason (ESWIM) and you have a good field.
Prediction: Chantal VanLandeghem and Victoria Poon grab the two individual spots and Julia Wilkinson, Sinead Russell, and Amanda Reason go for relay spots.
SUDDEN DEVELOPMENT: I'm writing this after I returned from coaching morning practice and honest to my notes and as I came back to check results, shockingly VanLandeghem fell apart on the 2nd 50 of her prelim swim and finished 13th and will only swim the B-Final. WOW!
EVENT 38: MEN'S 200BK
There are four legitimate players in this field -- Tobias Oriwol, Matt Hawes, Matthew Swanston, and Charles Francis. Francis is more of a 100BK guy and already on the team, so that will leave Swanston trying to pull the upset and get by either Oriwol or Hawes when the conventional thinking is that those two men are going to fight it out to get onto the team.
Prediction: Tobias Oriwol wins, Matt Hawes swims under the FINA A cut to send 2.
EVENT 39: WOMEN'S 200BR
Martha McCabe already has a nomination time from last summer's World Championships so she's set unless two people beat her time from last summer (not going to happen). So that leaves a scramble for the second spot, including current world record holder in the 200BR Annamay Pierse, Tera Van Beilen (already on the team in the 100BR), Kierra Smith, Ashley McGregor, Tianna Rissling, and Jillian Tyler (already on the team after winning the 100BR). Holy clusterfuck. I desperately would like to pick an upstart like McGregor to steal the second spot away from Pierse but I just can't do it...
Prediction: McCabe & Pierse
EVENT 32: WOMEN'S 800FR FINAL
After prelims yesterday there emerged an interesting field in the women's 800FR, all the important names are in... Brittany MacLean and Savannah King essentially tied, and later in the field Sherry Liu, Alexa Komarnycky, and a trio of Toronto ladies (UofT and/or TSC) Heather Maitland, Bridget Coley, and Zsofi Balazs. Good strong field but after their performances in the 400FR I don't think anyone catches up to MacLean and King.
Prediction: MacLean & King 1-2 and off to London.
EVENT 52: MEN'S 1500FR (PRELIMS ONLY)
Ryan Cochrane pre-nominated. Keir Maitland (KEYANO), ERIC HEDLIN (IS), and maybe a red-hot Alec Page (IS) will try to pull out a big best time and get under the FINA 'A' 15:11.83, but that will likely have to come in Finals tomorrow night.
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Friday, March 30, 2012
Canadian Trials... Day 4 Primer
Like everyone else, I'm bummed that a great citizen of Canadian swimming, Mike Brown, failed to qualify for the Olympics but it was not that hard to see coming. Mike's a great guy, but the sport of swimming is equal parts fair and unfair and at this point in time it just is not his time.
Onto Day 4... coming down the mountain for the meet, it's ladies day at Trials with three events for the women and one for the men.
EVENT 29: WOMEN'S 200FLY
Audrey Lacroix is the top seed in the event but Katerine Savard is the favourite to win and be Canada's best swimmer in this event come London. The FINA A cut is 2:08.95, can Audrey be that fast again, she was not sharp in the 100FL... Or will some of the women who swam very well in the 100FL step up and get on the team in the 200... I'm thinking someone like Mackenzie Downing who showed some life in the 100FL is the best bet to be a threat in the 200FL to grab the second spot behind Savard... or it could be Lacroix or it could be no one...
Prediction: Savard & Lacroix 1-2 and off to London.
EVENT 30: MEN'S 100FR
It will be interesting to see what kind of shape Brent Hayden comes to Trials in... He has a spot on the team, pre-nominated and there's zero chance he gets bumped so Hayden is on the team. The bigger storyline is can Colin Russell get under the FINA A cut of 48.82 and can a couple other guys step up to the 49ish level so Canada can send a relay? There are only 3 Canadians entered at Trials with a time under 50, so it does not look good for our chances to send a relay.
Prediction: Colin Russell wins and Brent Hayden comes in a solid second. No relay.
EVENT 31: WOMEN'S 200IM
The last day and second last event for Alexa Komarnycky, she's ranked 3rd in the 200IM and has a shot although I'm sure she does not want it come down to the 200. Julia Wilkinson and Erica Morningstar are the stars of this event in Canada but if you have been watching, the Calgary HP guys have not been overly sharp. If Morningstar stumbles that opens the door for someone to step up and steal that second spot. Time to watch, that FINA A standard of 2:13.36. I like the 16-year old upstart from the Nepean Kanata Barracudas to grab the second Olympic spot, watch out for Erika Seltenreich-Hodgson.
Prediction: Wilkinson & ESH on their way to London.
EVENT 32: WOMEN'S 800FR PRELIMS ONLY
Komarnycky is ranked 2nd in the 800FR too, close to the FINA A cut. The good thing for her is that all she needs to do is crack the top 8 and then she can focus on the 200IM tonight and the 800FR final will be tomorrow. No predictions yet, it will be interesting to see how the final lines up for tomorrow. Tough not to like Savannah King and Brittany MacLean in this event come tomorrow night, especially after both have already shined in the 400.
Onto Day 4... coming down the mountain for the meet, it's ladies day at Trials with three events for the women and one for the men.
EVENT 29: WOMEN'S 200FLY
Audrey Lacroix is the top seed in the event but Katerine Savard is the favourite to win and be Canada's best swimmer in this event come London. The FINA A cut is 2:08.95, can Audrey be that fast again, she was not sharp in the 100FL... Or will some of the women who swam very well in the 100FL step up and get on the team in the 200... I'm thinking someone like Mackenzie Downing who showed some life in the 100FL is the best bet to be a threat in the 200FL to grab the second spot behind Savard... or it could be Lacroix or it could be no one...
Prediction: Savard & Lacroix 1-2 and off to London.
EVENT 30: MEN'S 100FR
It will be interesting to see what kind of shape Brent Hayden comes to Trials in... He has a spot on the team, pre-nominated and there's zero chance he gets bumped so Hayden is on the team. The bigger storyline is can Colin Russell get under the FINA A cut of 48.82 and can a couple other guys step up to the 49ish level so Canada can send a relay? There are only 3 Canadians entered at Trials with a time under 50, so it does not look good for our chances to send a relay.
Prediction: Colin Russell wins and Brent Hayden comes in a solid second. No relay.
EVENT 31: WOMEN'S 200IM
The last day and second last event for Alexa Komarnycky, she's ranked 3rd in the 200IM and has a shot although I'm sure she does not want it come down to the 200. Julia Wilkinson and Erica Morningstar are the stars of this event in Canada but if you have been watching, the Calgary HP guys have not been overly sharp. If Morningstar stumbles that opens the door for someone to step up and steal that second spot. Time to watch, that FINA A standard of 2:13.36. I like the 16-year old upstart from the Nepean Kanata Barracudas to grab the second Olympic spot, watch out for Erika Seltenreich-Hodgson.
Prediction: Wilkinson & ESH on their way to London.
EVENT 32: WOMEN'S 800FR PRELIMS ONLY
Komarnycky is ranked 2nd in the 800FR too, close to the FINA A cut. The good thing for her is that all she needs to do is crack the top 8 and then she can focus on the 200IM tonight and the 800FR final will be tomorrow. No predictions yet, it will be interesting to see how the final lines up for tomorrow. Tough not to like Savannah King and Brittany MacLean in this event come tomorrow night, especially after both have already shined in the 400.
Wednesday, March 28, 2012
Canadian Trials... Day 3 Primer
I'm not batting so well on my predictions thanks to guys like David Sharpe and performances like Stephanie Horner in the 400IM... oh well... Here's a look at Day 3.
EVENT 20: WOMEN'S 200FR
A lot of the same faces that were involved in the fantastic 400FR from Day 1 are back for action in the 200FR. Barbara Jardin is the top seed but she will be challenged by Brittany MacLean, Sam Cheverton, Julia Wilkinson, Sinead Russell, Lindsay Delmar, and Alexa Komarnycky has another shot at redemption and possibly find a way onto the Olympic team. Canada is going to send 2 girls to London for this individual event and probably 5 for relay action... should be great!
Prediction: Jardin & B. MacLean go 1-2 with Wilkinson, Russell, and Cheverton claiming relay spots.
Revision: Wilkinson a scratch in the 200FR, but Amanda Reason looked real strong in prelims under 2:00
EVENT 21: MEN'S 400FR
Little drama here. Ryan Cochrane wins and Chad Bobrosky is the only one with a chance to get under the 3:48.92 FINA 'A' cut to send two to London.
Prediction: Ryan Cochrane & Chad Bobrosky both go to London
EVENT 22: WOMEN'S 100BR
Big time drama here... Jillian Tyler, Tianna Rissling, Martha McCabe, Annamay Pierse, and Tera Van Beilen highlight the field but someone like Ashley McGregor could also work her way into the busy mix. There could be 8 girls all capable of being under the FINA 'A' cut but only two get to go... great drama!
Prediction: Tyler & Rissling go 1-2 in an Alberta sweep of the 100BR spots.
EVENT 23: MEN'S 200BR
Moment of truth here for Mike Brown. He was not all that sharp in the 100BR, but the 200 is where Brown is supposed to shine. I don't think anyone is getting to the FINA 'A' cut of 2:11.74. I chose Richard Funk to win the 100BR and he came close but didn't quite get there but I'm going to double down for the Funk to be brought in the breaststroke.
Prediction: Richard Funk scores the upset win.
It's a big night for the women, up to 7 spots to be filled and I'm guessing they fill them all. The men could use a few more names written up on the bus, but it's not going to be easy. Here's to hoping there more exciting swimming to come on Thursday!
EVENT 20: WOMEN'S 200FR
A lot of the same faces that were involved in the fantastic 400FR from Day 1 are back for action in the 200FR. Barbara Jardin is the top seed but she will be challenged by Brittany MacLean, Sam Cheverton, Julia Wilkinson, Sinead Russell, Lindsay Delmar, and Alexa Komarnycky has another shot at redemption and possibly find a way onto the Olympic team. Canada is going to send 2 girls to London for this individual event and probably 5 for relay action... should be great!
Prediction: Jardin & B. MacLean go 1-2 with Wilkinson, Russell, and Cheverton claiming relay spots.
Revision: Wilkinson a scratch in the 200FR, but Amanda Reason looked real strong in prelims under 2:00
EVENT 21: MEN'S 400FR
Little drama here. Ryan Cochrane wins and Chad Bobrosky is the only one with a chance to get under the 3:48.92 FINA 'A' cut to send two to London.
Prediction: Ryan Cochrane & Chad Bobrosky both go to London
EVENT 22: WOMEN'S 100BR
Big time drama here... Jillian Tyler, Tianna Rissling, Martha McCabe, Annamay Pierse, and Tera Van Beilen highlight the field but someone like Ashley McGregor could also work her way into the busy mix. There could be 8 girls all capable of being under the FINA 'A' cut but only two get to go... great drama!
Prediction: Tyler & Rissling go 1-2 in an Alberta sweep of the 100BR spots.
EVENT 23: MEN'S 200BR
Moment of truth here for Mike Brown. He was not all that sharp in the 100BR, but the 200 is where Brown is supposed to shine. I don't think anyone is getting to the FINA 'A' cut of 2:11.74. I chose Richard Funk to win the 100BR and he came close but didn't quite get there but I'm going to double down for the Funk to be brought in the breaststroke.
Prediction: Richard Funk scores the upset win.
It's a big night for the women, up to 7 spots to be filled and I'm guessing they fill them all. The men could use a few more names written up on the bus, but it's not going to be easy. Here's to hoping there more exciting swimming to come on Thursday!
A Look At The First Two Days Of Canadian Trials
Just finished watching the Finals of Day 2 at the Canadian Olympic Trials and there have been some amazing swims and fascinating story lines...
Firstly, who is on the team?
WOMEN (7)
Brittany MacLean (ESWIM) - 400FR
Savannah King (VAND) - 400FR
Katerine Savard (CSQ) - 100FL
Julia Wilkinson (IS) - 100BK
Sinead Russell (BLUE WAVES) - 100BK
Stephanie Horner (IS) - 400IM
+ Martha McCabe (VAND) 200BR (pre-nominated)
MEN (7)
Alec Page (IS) - 400IM
Scott Dickens (VAND) - 100BR
Blake Worsley (IS) - 200FR
David Sharpe (HTAC) - 200FL
Charles Francis (PPO) - 100BK
+ Brent Hayden (VAND) - 100FR (pre-nominated)
+ Ryan Cochrane (IS) - 1500FR (pre-nominated)
THE GOOD
Alec Page has to considered the start of the meet so far, he won the 400IM in a good best times, which positions himself ascend to the status as one of the world's best 400IMers over the next quadrennial. He may do well in 2012 but watch this kid come 2016. Page also won a bronze medal in the 200FL and went under 2:00, in 1:59.99. The kid is strong and is a future cornerstone of Canadian swimming.
Brittany MacLean's 400FR was the single best performance of the meet so far, lowering the Canadian record to 4:06.08. MacLean will be seen again in the 200 and 800 freestyles... she's good.
Julia Wilkinson's underwater fly kick. She won that 100BK and broke 60 because her turn was fantastic. Sinead had Wilkinson but Wilkinson's underwater fly kick was far superior to Sinead's and the race was over but thankfully both were under the FINA 'A' cut and they will live to fight again in London.
Katerine Savard was not as sharp as she has been but she's sooo talented and now officially off to London and Scott Dickens was good enough to get the W.
THE BAD
The failure of the men to qualify a 4x200FR relay... The two best Canadian 200 freestylers chose to opt out of the 200FR (Brent Hayden and Colin Russell), which means Blake Worsley should buy those gentlemen something very nice as a thank you gift. In all honesty, the top 4 men were nowhere close to getting to qualifying a team, which is upsetting because the 200FR used to be a very strong event for Canadian men... now... not so much.
SportsNet's broadcast. Faulds is doing a decent job although he can't pronounce French names to save his life. Malar is fumbling over names and facts, which is pretty sad because she is the colour commentator is supposed to play the role of the expert. The camera angles have left a lot of be desired, which was epitomized by the no-camera victory of David Sharpe in the 200FL. The heavy focus on the favourites have hurt, this sport is not professional wrestling and not everything plays out to script and the focus on Hirniak and Komarnycky was painful to watch tonight, the unpredictability of Trials and the emotion of the results is what makes Trials so great and I feel that SportsNet is missing that point.
THE UGLY
Not that it was ugly but I felt for Zack Chetrat tonight... he had that 200FL won tonight at 150, Chetrat is an animal in the training pool and if you would have told him that he'd be only .12 behind Hirniak at 150 and more then .3 ahead of anyone else with 50 to go then Chetrat would probably say he'd win that race 999 times out of 1000... but Sharpe got there in the last 5m. Wow.
After being seemingly written off by a lot of people, Stephanie Horner stepping up on the day and claiming that 400IM Olympic spot... unbelievable. Her interview following her race was quite candid, she's bounced around and has not looked very good over the last few years but it was amazing for her to FIND A WAY.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Great words by Brent Hayden tonight in that video montage at the end of the show. The notion of INVESTING his time in the sport rather then SACRIFICING his time... Brilliant, a tip of my hat to Brent Hayden. I hope a lot of young swimmers saw that statement.
Firstly, who is on the team?
WOMEN (7)
Brittany MacLean (ESWIM) - 400FR
Savannah King (VAND) - 400FR
Katerine Savard (CSQ) - 100FL
Julia Wilkinson (IS) - 100BK
Sinead Russell (BLUE WAVES) - 100BK
Stephanie Horner (IS) - 400IM
+ Martha McCabe (VAND) 200BR (pre-nominated)
MEN (7)
Alec Page (IS) - 400IM
Scott Dickens (VAND) - 100BR
Blake Worsley (IS) - 200FR
David Sharpe (HTAC) - 200FL
Charles Francis (PPO) - 100BK
+ Brent Hayden (VAND) - 100FR (pre-nominated)
+ Ryan Cochrane (IS) - 1500FR (pre-nominated)
THE GOOD
Alec Page has to considered the start of the meet so far, he won the 400IM in a good best times, which positions himself ascend to the status as one of the world's best 400IMers over the next quadrennial. He may do well in 2012 but watch this kid come 2016. Page also won a bronze medal in the 200FL and went under 2:00, in 1:59.99. The kid is strong and is a future cornerstone of Canadian swimming.
Brittany MacLean's 400FR was the single best performance of the meet so far, lowering the Canadian record to 4:06.08. MacLean will be seen again in the 200 and 800 freestyles... she's good.
Julia Wilkinson's underwater fly kick. She won that 100BK and broke 60 because her turn was fantastic. Sinead had Wilkinson but Wilkinson's underwater fly kick was far superior to Sinead's and the race was over but thankfully both were under the FINA 'A' cut and they will live to fight again in London.
Katerine Savard was not as sharp as she has been but she's sooo talented and now officially off to London and Scott Dickens was good enough to get the W.
THE BAD
The failure of the men to qualify a 4x200FR relay... The two best Canadian 200 freestylers chose to opt out of the 200FR (Brent Hayden and Colin Russell), which means Blake Worsley should buy those gentlemen something very nice as a thank you gift. In all honesty, the top 4 men were nowhere close to getting to qualifying a team, which is upsetting because the 200FR used to be a very strong event for Canadian men... now... not so much.
SportsNet's broadcast. Faulds is doing a decent job although he can't pronounce French names to save his life. Malar is fumbling over names and facts, which is pretty sad because she is the colour commentator is supposed to play the role of the expert. The camera angles have left a lot of be desired, which was epitomized by the no-camera victory of David Sharpe in the 200FL. The heavy focus on the favourites have hurt, this sport is not professional wrestling and not everything plays out to script and the focus on Hirniak and Komarnycky was painful to watch tonight, the unpredictability of Trials and the emotion of the results is what makes Trials so great and I feel that SportsNet is missing that point.
THE UGLY
Not that it was ugly but I felt for Zack Chetrat tonight... he had that 200FL won tonight at 150, Chetrat is an animal in the training pool and if you would have told him that he'd be only .12 behind Hirniak at 150 and more then .3 ahead of anyone else with 50 to go then Chetrat would probably say he'd win that race 999 times out of 1000... but Sharpe got there in the last 5m. Wow.
After being seemingly written off by a lot of people, Stephanie Horner stepping up on the day and claiming that 400IM Olympic spot... unbelievable. Her interview following her race was quite candid, she's bounced around and has not looked very good over the last few years but it was amazing for her to FIND A WAY.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Great words by Brent Hayden tonight in that video montage at the end of the show. The notion of INVESTING his time in the sport rather then SACRIFICING his time... Brilliant, a tip of my hat to Brent Hayden. I hope a lot of young swimmers saw that statement.
Canadian Trials... Day 2 Primer
OK... I swung and missed a few times yesterday with my predictions, but for the most part I was not too bad. The primary purpose is of course for fun, here's a look at Day 2 action...
EVENT 11: MEN'S 200FLY
Stefan Hirniak (IS) is the man in this event, he's been chased regularly by a pair of young men from Oakville, Zack Chetrat (TSC) and Mack Darragh (OAK) but it will take a breakthrough swim from one of those two boys to get towards the FINA A standard of 1:56.86. Hirniak will have to swim much better then he did yesterday to get to the FINA A but this is what he's been training for the last 4 years, so he has to be considered the heavy favourite here.
Prediction: Hirniak (IS)
EVENT 12: WOMEN'S 100BK
Sinead Russell all day long! Russell emerged last summer as a legit elite backstroke talent on the world stage and today she punches her ticket to London. Island Swimming swam very well yesterday so that makes the girl with the golden smile, Julia Wilkinson, a threat to be the second Canadian woman under 60 but also look for a young lady for North Bay to also be a threat, Dominique Bouchard who has swam very well since heading to the University of Missouri and medaled at NCAAs a couple weeks ago.
Prediction: Russell (Blue Waves) and Dominique Bouchard steps up and steals the second spot on the team.
EVENT 13: MEN'S 100BK
A deep field that is looking for someone or two someones to breakthrough and launch themselves onto the world scene 20 years after the 100BK brilliance of Mark Tewksbury. Unfortunately for Canada, Tewksbury's golden time from 20 years ago 53.98 would enter him faster then anyone else at the 2012 Canadian Trials... Names to look for are Charles Francis, Matt Hawes, Jake Tapp, Matt Swanston, and Pascal Wollach.
Prediction: Charles Francis & Matt Hawes go 1-2 under the FINA A of 54.40
EVENT 14: WOMEN'S 400IM
After watching her teammates yesterday, this is Alexa Komarnycky's time to shine and get herself on that team to London. Lots of other ladies will chase her but Komarnycky is the class of the field and I think she will be the only Canadian under the FINA A cut and on her way to London.
Prediction: Alexa Komarnycky
Good luck to all!
EVENT 11: MEN'S 200FLY
Stefan Hirniak (IS) is the man in this event, he's been chased regularly by a pair of young men from Oakville, Zack Chetrat (TSC) and Mack Darragh (OAK) but it will take a breakthrough swim from one of those two boys to get towards the FINA A standard of 1:56.86. Hirniak will have to swim much better then he did yesterday to get to the FINA A but this is what he's been training for the last 4 years, so he has to be considered the heavy favourite here.
Prediction: Hirniak (IS)
EVENT 12: WOMEN'S 100BK
Sinead Russell all day long! Russell emerged last summer as a legit elite backstroke talent on the world stage and today she punches her ticket to London. Island Swimming swam very well yesterday so that makes the girl with the golden smile, Julia Wilkinson, a threat to be the second Canadian woman under 60 but also look for a young lady for North Bay to also be a threat, Dominique Bouchard who has swam very well since heading to the University of Missouri and medaled at NCAAs a couple weeks ago.
Prediction: Russell (Blue Waves) and Dominique Bouchard steps up and steals the second spot on the team.
EVENT 13: MEN'S 100BK
A deep field that is looking for someone or two someones to breakthrough and launch themselves onto the world scene 20 years after the 100BK brilliance of Mark Tewksbury. Unfortunately for Canada, Tewksbury's golden time from 20 years ago 53.98 would enter him faster then anyone else at the 2012 Canadian Trials... Names to look for are Charles Francis, Matt Hawes, Jake Tapp, Matt Swanston, and Pascal Wollach.
Prediction: Charles Francis & Matt Hawes go 1-2 under the FINA A of 54.40
EVENT 14: WOMEN'S 400IM
After watching her teammates yesterday, this is Alexa Komarnycky's time to shine and get herself on that team to London. Lots of other ladies will chase her but Komarnycky is the class of the field and I think she will be the only Canadian under the FINA A cut and on her way to London.
Prediction: Alexa Komarnycky
Good luck to all!
Monday, March 26, 2012
Canadian Trials... Day 1 Primer
Trials begin tomorrow... here's a rundown of what to expect and some predictions meant to entertain and not put anyone down, because in the end I don't know how everyone has been training I just love swimming and find predictions fun and wish EVERYONE good luck in Montreal...
EVENT 1: MEN'S 400IM
Jordan Hartney (VAND) is the top seed but the perceived battle should be between Andrew Ford (GMAC) and Alec Page (IS). Out of the picture is long time Canadian medley staple Brian Johns so these leaves this field wide open but the FINA A cut is more then 2 seconds faster then Hartney's entry time and more then 4 seconds faster then the best time's of Ford and Page. I don't see two men getting under the FINA 'A' cut so it's a winner take only spot situation.
Prediction: Page (IS)
EVENT 2: WOMEN'S 400FR
The top 5 seeds in this race are all very strong and capable of being under the FINA 'A' cut of 4:09.35. The battle is between Alexa Komarnycky (IS), Barbara Jardin (PPO), Sam Cheverton (PCSC), Brittany MacLean (ESWIM), and Savannah King (VAND). Anyone who says they know exactly how this one will play out is lying, this should be the most deeply contested event of the first day... may the best woman win, and may the second best be fast enough to also go to London.
Prediction: Komarnycky (IS) Gold and MacLean (ESWIM) Silver and fast enough to go to London.
EVENT 3: MEN'S 100BR
No one is entered faster then the FINA 'A' cut, which for my money makes this one of the events that could produce a surprise winner. The veterans of the field are Scott Dickens (27), Mike Brown (27), Warren Barnes (26), and Paul Kornfeld (24) but the swimmer with the highest upside and who swam an adjusted 1:01.4 at the NCAAs last weekend for Michigan is KEYANO's Richard Funk. Call me crazy, I'm picking the upstart funk to win and represent Canada but emotionally I will be cheering for Warren Barnes to step up and make the team. I don't think anyone gets under the FINA 'A' cut so it's a potentially winner take only spot situation like the men's 400IM.
Prediction: Funk (KEYANO)
EVENT 4: WOMEN'S 100FL
One woman race, Katerine Savard is one of the best in the world at this event and she might post the best swim in terms of FINA points for all the women in the meet in this event. FINA 'A' cut is 58.70, which is faster then any other Canadian woman's entry time but in this case I think someone else is going to get under the A cut and like the 100BR I'm going to take the younger swimmer to get there... I like 16 year old rising flier Noemie Thomas to finish second and get her passport to London stamped.
Prediction: Savard (PPO) & Thomas (VAND)
EVENT 5: MEN'S 200FR
The two best Canadian 200 freestylers are not even making an attempt at the 200FR at Trials and thus I don't like what's going on here. The top seed, Stefan Hirniak should be looking forward to day 2 and the 200FL, but he might be good enough to win the 200 and earn his spot on the team before swimming his best event... Maybe... More likely is that last year's breakthrough freestyle swimmer Chad Bobrosky wins the 200FR. Will enough swimmers go fast enough to qualify for a Canadian relay team in the 4x200 for London, from what I have been told... no. Sadly. I hope that a few people step up and prove the doubters wrong but it will take big swims from guys like Hirniak, Oriwol, and Cochrane who are at Trials to swim other more important events.
Prediction: Bobrosky (CASC)
I will not profess to being an expert on PARA swimming, so I will recuse myself from making a prediction on the PARA 100BRs tomorrow. Special good luck wish to my swimmer Malcolm Fairweather! Go Malcolm!
EVENT 1: MEN'S 400IM
Jordan Hartney (VAND) is the top seed but the perceived battle should be between Andrew Ford (GMAC) and Alec Page (IS). Out of the picture is long time Canadian medley staple Brian Johns so these leaves this field wide open but the FINA A cut is more then 2 seconds faster then Hartney's entry time and more then 4 seconds faster then the best time's of Ford and Page. I don't see two men getting under the FINA 'A' cut so it's a winner take only spot situation.
Prediction: Page (IS)
EVENT 2: WOMEN'S 400FR
The top 5 seeds in this race are all very strong and capable of being under the FINA 'A' cut of 4:09.35. The battle is between Alexa Komarnycky (IS), Barbara Jardin (PPO), Sam Cheverton (PCSC), Brittany MacLean (ESWIM), and Savannah King (VAND). Anyone who says they know exactly how this one will play out is lying, this should be the most deeply contested event of the first day... may the best woman win, and may the second best be fast enough to also go to London.
Prediction: Komarnycky (IS) Gold and MacLean (ESWIM) Silver and fast enough to go to London.
EVENT 3: MEN'S 100BR
No one is entered faster then the FINA 'A' cut, which for my money makes this one of the events that could produce a surprise winner. The veterans of the field are Scott Dickens (27), Mike Brown (27), Warren Barnes (26), and Paul Kornfeld (24) but the swimmer with the highest upside and who swam an adjusted 1:01.4 at the NCAAs last weekend for Michigan is KEYANO's Richard Funk. Call me crazy, I'm picking the upstart funk to win and represent Canada but emotionally I will be cheering for Warren Barnes to step up and make the team. I don't think anyone gets under the FINA 'A' cut so it's a potentially winner take only spot situation like the men's 400IM.
Prediction: Funk (KEYANO)
EVENT 4: WOMEN'S 100FL
One woman race, Katerine Savard is one of the best in the world at this event and she might post the best swim in terms of FINA points for all the women in the meet in this event. FINA 'A' cut is 58.70, which is faster then any other Canadian woman's entry time but in this case I think someone else is going to get under the A cut and like the 100BR I'm going to take the younger swimmer to get there... I like 16 year old rising flier Noemie Thomas to finish second and get her passport to London stamped.
Prediction: Savard (PPO) & Thomas (VAND)
EVENT 5: MEN'S 200FR
The two best Canadian 200 freestylers are not even making an attempt at the 200FR at Trials and thus I don't like what's going on here. The top seed, Stefan Hirniak should be looking forward to day 2 and the 200FL, but he might be good enough to win the 200 and earn his spot on the team before swimming his best event... Maybe... More likely is that last year's breakthrough freestyle swimmer Chad Bobrosky wins the 200FR. Will enough swimmers go fast enough to qualify for a Canadian relay team in the 4x200 for London, from what I have been told... no. Sadly. I hope that a few people step up and prove the doubters wrong but it will take big swims from guys like Hirniak, Oriwol, and Cochrane who are at Trials to swim other more important events.
Prediction: Bobrosky (CASC)
I will not profess to being an expert on PARA swimming, so I will recuse myself from making a prediction on the PARA 100BRs tomorrow. Special good luck wish to my swimmer Malcolm Fairweather! Go Malcolm!
Canadian Trials... The Best
It all begins tomorrow!
The Canadian Olympic Trials start tomorrow and run through Sunday in Montreal. I'll be doing all I can to blog (sometimes live blog) and Tweet through the meet. I have a set of predictions and will provide analysis after each session.
I remember swimming at both the 2000 and 2004 Olympic Trials. The meet NEVER fails to come through with breakthrough performances and unfortunately heart-wrenching collapses.
Tune in... and if your computer has a dial used for tuning... buy a new computer!
The Canadian Olympic Trials start tomorrow and run through Sunday in Montreal. I'll be doing all I can to blog (sometimes live blog) and Tweet through the meet. I have a set of predictions and will provide analysis after each session.
I remember swimming at both the 2000 and 2004 Olympic Trials. The meet NEVER fails to come through with breakthrough performances and unfortunately heart-wrenching collapses.
Tune in... and if your computer has a dial used for tuning... buy a new computer!
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